Sloppy Troika

I read excerpts of Mr. Traa’s speech at the Economist conference with great interest. He tried to explain the dismal failure of “troika’s” plan by blaming it on the greater than expected instability in the financial markets, European politics and Greek government incompetence. While he is right on all counts, the IMF/EC/ECB team still bears a significant share of responsibility for killing the Greek economy without really sorting out the problem. The initial “Memorandum” had been hastily put together but this does not altogether justify the sloppy work behind it. How did the troika, for example, rationally expect revenues from the extraordinary (i.e. permanent) tax on company earnings to remain stable at 600 million Euros per annum until 2013? They obviously used an Excel spreadsheet to calculate potential state revenue from each measure without considering the interaction between taxes and the simple fact that all taxes directly or indirectly affecting the consumer e.g. VAT, taxes on property, gasoline, tobacco, alcohol etc are all paid from the same wallet. They apparently ignored the fact that price increases will, in most cases, adversely affect demand and therefore the yield of planned measures. They have tragically underestimated the depth of recession that all this Mongolian cluster fuck of a plan would cause.

Although the initial memorandum had a number of commitments that were in the right direction, e.g levelling severance pay between white collar and blue collar workers the Troikans have done little to push them through. They happily agreed to additional tax measures without insisting on expense reduction which should have been the focus from day one. They were also very lax on the Greek government which was not really implementing any of the much needed  deregulation. They were afraid, from day one, to ask for redundancies in the public sector although it was mathematically obvious that there was no other way to permanently reduce government deficit. Instead they were happy to pile new taxes on the same group of taxpayers, destroying the economy and any hope of recovery. More that 300.000 jobs were lost in the private sector half of which would have been sustainable under a better plan.

Mr Traa was never tasked with implementing the fiscal austerity agreement. But he is responsible for putting together a badly designed plan. He might claim that there are no econometric tools that will work on the semi-Soviet Greek economy. He might also claim that the European Commission came to Greece with an axe to grind. Although these claims may be true, this does not change the fact that they have botched the job. And they should, at least, accept their share of responsibility instead of taking the moral high ground.