Tuesday, May 07, 2013

IMF’s useless politicians

The IMF released yesterday its 2013 Article IV consultation Concluding Statement i.e. the “report” of its Mission to Greece. As politics supersede sound judgement the IMF report leaves a lot unsaid.

In point 3 the report discusses insufficient structural reforms particularly in the tax system where “Very little progress has been made in tackling Greece’s notorious tax evasion. The rich and self-employed are simply not paying their fair share, which has forced an excessive reliance on across-the-board expenditure cuts and higher taxes on those earning a salary or a pension”. The real problem, however, is not tax evasion but the tax system itself that heavily relies on heavy property and indirect taxes irrespectively of income. A system whose very high rates and burden practically force those who can evade taxes, to do so in order to survive. A system under which shipowners, the richest of the Greeks, are constitutionally shielded from any taxation. With 30% of taxpayers currently unable to meet their tax burden and with taxation practically killing the economy there is no mention in the report of the urgent need to reform the tax system itself and not just the tax collection mechanism, which is the only priority for the IMF.

In order to reform the tax system the government should streamline expenditure and improve the dismal productivity of the public sector. The IMF report stresses the need for “limited mandatory redundancies” in the public sector noting that “while projections suggest that attrition will be just about enough to meet medium-term staffing targets, the provision of important public services is already hampered by lack of qualified staff in key areas, like banking supervision and tax administration. Mandatory redundancies that provide room to hire new, well-qualified and motivated staff will thus need to be a key component of the plan for modernization of the public sector, and in the process lend credibility to the policy of relying primarily on attrition. The taboo against mandatory dismissals must be overcome.”

This would have been an excellent idea if the word “limited” was changed with “extensive” in regards to mandatory redundancies. With more that 1.500.000 unemployed in the private sector the IMF is afraid to tell the truth. While it says that the “taboo” should be overcome it dampens its own conclusions by asking for “limited” redundancies while everyone knows that sweeping redundancies are needed.

Similarly the report contains the following politically correct statement about improving the business environment “The government’s welcome public commitment to improving the business environment and accelerating privatization now needs to be matched with results.” This is the IMF way of saying that the government has does absolutely nothing to improve the business environment even in cases where reforms would be revenue neutral. And that is simply because the government does not care about the private sector as its’ priority is to protect the bloated inefficient public sector that is dragging us down.

Also, one of the biggest problems lies with the tragically inefficient justice system that scares away all potential investors and, with them, any hope of recovery. This critical issue does not appear anywhere in IMF's report and is only casually mentioned in other EU reports on Greece.

The current fiscal “progress” is based on non sustainable taxation and any future hopes of growth are killed by the lack of structural reforms.

Greece is very sick and in need of a doctor. This is the role the IMF should play and not that of a politician. We already have too many of those.

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